Weekly Economic Expectations:
| Date | Time | Currency | Event | Expectation | Previously Announced Data |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 10, Monday | XRP, SOL | Ripple and Solana CME futures start trading | |||
| February 11, Tuesday | 10:00 | TRY | Turkey Retail Sales (Monthly) (Dec) | 1.9% | |
| February 11, Tuesday | 18:00 | USD | Fed Chair Powell’s Comments | ||
| February 12, Wednesday | 16:30 | USD | Consumer Price Index (CPI) (YoY) (Jan) | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| February 12, Wednesday | 18:00 | USD | Fed Chair Powell’s Comments |
Trump’s New Tariff Decision
U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% additional tariff on steel and aluminum imports has caused fluctuations in both global and cryptocurrency markets. Following the announcement, Bitcoin experienced a sharp drop but quickly rebounded, surprising investors.
Speaking aboard Air Force One, Trump declared that a new 25% tariff would be imposed on steel and aluminum imports. After the news, Bitcoin’s price dropped rapidly to $94,700, losing more than 2% of its value. However, during the night, a strong buying wave pushed the price back up, and Bitcoin reached $97,700. It is currently trading at $97,100.
Trump’s new trade policies have increased global economic uncertainty, prompting investors to move away from risky assets. Several countries have responded to the decision:
- German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that if the U.S. enforces tariffs, Europe will respond swiftly.
- Australia plans to request an exemption from U.S. steel tariffs.
- China, meanwhile, has not backed down from its previously announced retaliatory measures and has implemented up to 15% additional tariffs.
SEC Delays Decision on Ethereum ETF Options
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has postponed its decision on whether to approve options trading for BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust until April 9, 2025. The agency stated that it requires additional time for further evaluation.
Additionally, the SEC has requested public comments on whether to allow options trading for Fidelity’s spot Ethereum ETF. Some organizations, such as Better Markets, have argued for a cautious approach, highlighting the high risk associated with options trading for retail investors.
U.S. States Take New Steps for Bitcoin
The U.S. states of Kentucky and Missouri have initiated steps to adopt Bitcoin as an official reserve asset. Both states have introduced new legislative proposals to diversify excess cash reserves with Bitcoin.
Kentucky’s KY HB376 bill proposes investing up to 10% of the state’s excess cash reserves in Bitcoin.
Missouri’s HB 1217 bill aims to grant the state treasury the authority to purchase and hold Bitcoin.
These initiatives mark a significant development in the institutional adoption of digital assets in the U.S., fueling discussions about Bitcoin’s potential role as a state treasury reserve asset.
Arbitrum Introduces ‘Universal Intent Engine’
Ethereum Layer 2 network Arbitrum has unveiled a new system called Universal Intent Engine, aimed at making cross-chain transactions faster and more efficient.
Developed by Offchain Labs, this technology allows users to execute swaps and transfers across different chains in a single step. Unlike traditional processes, where users must manually proceed step by step, the Intent Engine enables users to specify only the desired outcome. The process is then managed by solvers—third-party actors competing to execute transactions at the lowest cost and highest speed.
Initially, the system will focus on recognizing and executing intents across different blockchains. Arbitrum’s innovation places it in direct competition with cross-chain solutions like Across, deBridge, and Synapse. Meanwhile, its key rival, Optimism, is working on a similar interoperability solution for its Superchain ecosystem.
Arbitrum’s Universal Intent Engine aims to make cross-chain transactions simpler, faster, and more efficient, enhancing Ethereum ecosystem interoperability while reducing user effort in transaction execution.
BTC:
Let’s take a look at ITB analysis for Bitcoin together;
We see that 90% of Bitcoin holders are in profit, 5% are at a loss, and 5% are neutral at the current market price. This indicates that the vast majority of investors are in profit at Bitcoin’s current price levels, meaning they purchased their holdings below the current market price. This situation could be a sign of strong confidence in the market and that previous purchases were made with the right strategies. However, such a high profit ratio also carries the risk of increased profit-taking, which should not be overlooked.
The whale transaction volume has risen to $170.48 billion. Since whales generally have the ability to influence the market, this increase in volume could be a sign of potential large price movements in Bitcoin.
ITB analysis shows that Bitcoin has four neutral expectations, no bullish expectations, and one bearish market expectation. The absence of a bullish market expectation suggests that a sudden price surge is not anticipated in the short term. On the other hand, having only one bearish expectation indicates that the downtrend is limited and that investors are not yet in a state of panic. The high number of neutral expectations reveals that the Bitcoin market is currently in a phase of uncertainty, and most investors are struggling to determine a clear direction.
Looking at the overall outlook, it seems that the Bitcoin market is currently in a consolidation phase. Most market participants are in profit, whale activity is high, and the general expectation remains neutral. This situation suggests that the market is in preparation for its next major move.
“This research report’s investment information and comments do not constitute investment advice.”
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