Weekly Market Expectations:
|Previous Month’s Announced Data
|Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Annual) (Jan) Inflation data
|Unemployment Insurance Claims
|German Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Annual) (Jan)
The weekend was dominated by the new decision taken by the TCMB.
Fatih Karahan was officially appointed as the Governor of the Central Bank, replacing Hafize Gaye Erkan.
In the Official Gazette numbered 32449 and dated February 3, 2024, with the Presidential Decree of the Republic of Turkey, Dr. Fatih Karahan was appointed as the Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), previously serving as Deputy Governor.
Fatih Karahan made his first statement as follows:
“The primary objective and priority of our Central Bank is to ensure price stability. In this direction, we continue our efforts to achieve disinflation with our strong team resolutely.
We are determined to maintain the necessary monetary tightness until inflation falls to levels consistent with our target. We closely monitor inflation expectations and pricing behavior. We will absolutely not allow any deterioration in the inflation outlook.”
The Non-Farm Payroll figures announced last week were also reported at 353,000, exceeding the positive expectations significantly. This data strengthens the Dollar index and, on the other hand, we see the Dollar positively diverging due to the changes in the CBRT on the Turkish side. It would be prudent to be cautious with transactions on the Bist this week.
The annual consumer inflation (CPI) data announced today was reported at 64.86%, close to expectations. The expectation was 64.52%. The annual consumer inflation data announced the previous month was 64.77%.
- The people of El Salvador went to the polls again. Nayib Bukele, a leader fond of Bitcoin, was re-elected as President.
- El Salvador went to the polls on February 4. Nayib Bukele won again with a stunning victory of 87%.
In January, Bitcoin‘s on-chain transaction volume saw its highest level since September 2022, reaching and even exceeding $1.21 trillion. This amount is three times higher than the transaction volume recorded in September 2023. Despite the increase in volume, we do not see January closing with a very high margin. It is also commented that higher margins might occur in the coming period with the Bitcoin halving expectations.
If we were to examine Bitcoin with the ITB analyses available on the EgeMoney Website;
We can see that there is no clear direction and that in the short term, the market is predominantly predicted to be in a bearish trend. This uncertainty can end as the trend finds its direction. When opening trades in the short term, it would be more prudent to make sure to use ‘take profit’ and ‘stop loss’ orders.
On the Ethereum side, we see a tendency to recover from the bottom of the channel. Here, the significant levels will be the channel’s middle resistance level at 2350 USDT and, upon breaking through, the 2600 USDT levels. However, it’s important to note the short-term buying and selling opportunities between 2300 USDT and 2350 USDT. We see that this allows for short-term opportunities. Should we see movements above the forming ascending triangle, it will first test the 2350 level and then, in the medium to long term, it can reach back to the 2600 levels again.
“The investment information, opinions, and recommendations contained in this research report are not within the scope of investment advisory.”
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