DATA DURING FED WEEK:
| Date | Time | Currency | Case | Expectation | Previous Month’s Data |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30.04.2024 | BTC, ETH | Launch of Hong Kong spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs | |||
| 30.04.2024 | BTC | Finalization of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ)’s penalty decision | |||
| 01.05.2024 | TRY | Labor Day – Public Holiday | |||
| 01.05.2024 | 21:00 | USD | Federal Reserve (FED) interest rate decision | 5,5% | 5,5% |
| 01.05.2024 | 21:30 | USD | FOMC Press Conference | ||
| 03.05.2024 | 10:00 | TRY | Turkey Consumer Price Index (CPI) | 68,5% | |
| 03.05.2024 | 15:30 | USD | US Non-Farm Payrolls | 243K | 303K |
| 03.05.2024 | 15:30 | USD | US Unemployment Rate (Apr) | 3,8% | 3,8% |
| 03.05.2024 | 15:30 | USD | US Average Hourly Earnings (Apr) | 0,3% | 0,3% |
This week’s economic calendar is quite busy. We will be facing both the Fed’s interest rate decision and Non-Farm Payrolls data within the same week. The Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged, but surprises are possible. With this uncertainty, we observe general declines in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin, which reached levels around $62,000, may experience fluctuations this week. Looking at the positions liquidated in the last 24 hours, we see that 79.58% of them were long positions, and most of the liquidation occurred in Bitcoin.
Solana Sold via Auction
As mentioned, the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX announced that it would sell some of its Solana coins through an auction. The expected happened, and it is stated that significant companies such as Pantera Capital and Galaxy Digital bought Solana, with approximately 2,000 Solana changing hands in total. In total, FTX sold approximately $1.9 billion worth of Solana to companies like Pantera and Galaxy Digital.
New Trading Pairs for ADA, SHIB, SOL, and XRP
Binance announced the addition of 4 trading pairs for Cardano (ADA), Shiba Inu (SHIB), Solana (SOL), and Ripple (XRP) cryptocurrencies. With the new trading pairs, ADA, SHIB, SOL, and XRP investors will be able to trade against the Japanese Yen (JPY). According to the announcement, investors can start trading ADA/JPY, SHIB/JPY, SOL/JPY, and XRP/JPY on Binance starting from 11:00 AM GMT on April 30.
ASX Prepares for Bitcoin ETFs
According to Bloomberg’s report, the ASX exchange in Australia is preparing to launch spot Bitcoin ETFs by the end of this year. Rumors suggest that several companies like VanEck, BetaShares, and DigitalX applied earlier this year to create spot Bitcoin ETFs. It is reported that ASX, the country’s largest securities exchange, is preparing to launch these ETFs before the end of 2024. As of March 2024, there are more than 2,100 companies listed on the ASX exchange, with a market capitalization of around $2.7 trillion.
Expectations for ETH Rise
According to data shared by the on-chain analysis platform Spot On Chain, cryptocurrency whales continue to buy Ethereum. A whale with the wallet address “0xeb0b” drew attention by purchasing 1,524 ETH worth $4.19 million on April 25 at a cost of $3,159. Another whale with the wallet address “0x435” bought 7,128 ETH worth $22.2 million through Binance on the same day at a cost of $3,111. Finally, a whale with the wallet address “0x0d07” bought 1,800 ETH worth $5.7 million from Binance at a cost of $3,170. The consistent and substantial purchases by whales suggest an expectation of a rise in Ethereum price.
BTCD:
Bitcoin Dominance, which was at 55% last week, is trading around 54% this week. While this small change may seem insignificant at first glance, it carries important clues to understanding market dynamics and investor behavior. This decrease in Bitcoin Dominance may indicate increased interest in altcoins other than Bitcoin. Usually, when Bitcoin dominance decreases, we observe an increase in the performance of altcoins with lower market capitalization.
During this year’s Halving event, the number of new Bitcoins created per block was halved, reducing the supply of new BTC entering the market. Before the Halving, 900 BTC were generated per day, whereas now it has decreased to 450. Market expectations for price increases after the Halving event are still present. However, we have seen market pressures due to geopolitical risks and the Fed. After this week passes, the direction in the Bitcoin market may become more pronounced.
BTC:
Despite the completion of the Halving, we have not yet seen the expected impact on Bitcoin. We can attribute this to geopolitical risks and pressure from the Fed. This week, we will particularly monitor the Fed and NFP data for our BTC transactions. In the current context, it is possible to say that the $60,000 level is a psychological level, and if it is breached, the sell-off could deepen. If we evaluate Bitcoin with the ITB analyses available on our EgeMoney website;
We see that the percentage of Bitcoin holders in profit has dropped to 86%. Total exchange outflows were over $7 billion last week, but this week they are around $5 billion. According to the ITB analyses, there are 5 “Bear”, 0 “Bull”, and 2 “Neutral” expectations. By using “Take Profit” and “Stop Loss” orders, we would not expose ourselves to excessive risk during the Fed week.
“The investment information and comments contained in this research report are not investment advice.”
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