Skip to main content

Weekly Economic Calendar:

DateTimeCurrencyEventExpectationPrevious Data
January 15, Wednesday22:00USDUS Beige Book
January 15, Wednesday22:00BlackRock to release its earnings report after the US stock market closes.
January 17, Friday13:00EUREurozone Annual Inflation Rate (CPI)2.4%2.2%

 

Investor Interest in Bitcoin is Weakening

Bitcoin network activity has dropped to the lowest levels in the past two months, highlighting declining interest in the world’s largest cryptocurrency asset class. If BTC loses the critical $92,000 support level, it risks falling to the $70,000 range. This scenario could lead to broader selling pressure in the market and prompt investors to act more cautiously. The drop in on-chain data indicates that both retail and institutional investors’ interest in Bitcoin has temporarily weakened. However, market experts emphasize that such pullbacks can create opportunities for long-term investors. Bitcoin’s consolidation around the $94,500 level suggests a period of uncertainty, making it crucial for investors to focus on on-chain data and critical support levels. As the crypto market navigates through a phase of volatility and uncertainty, close monitoring of price movements remains essential.

 

A Significant Ethereum Whale Sale

Major Ethereum transfers have caught the attention of the crypto world. According to Lookonchain data, three different wallets likely belonging to the same entity sold a total of 10,070 ETH for 33 million DAI over the past 9 hours, incurring an approximate $1 million loss. The sale was executed at Ethereum’s price level of $3,280. Three weeks ago, this whale withdrew a total of 24,029 ETH ($81.3 million) from Binance to 10 different wallets. Currently, these wallets hold a remaining balance of 13,959 ETH ($45.48 million). While the reason for this significant loss-making sale remains unclear, it has caused disappointment among market participants. It remains to be seen if the negative effects of this sale will be reflected in ETH prices in the coming days.


What Happened with ETFs, and What Do We Expect?

  • Spot Bitcoin ETFs Made History in Their First Year
    Spot Bitcoin ETFs surpassed expectations, reaching $61 billion in assets under management within their first year post-approval. This figure exceeded the success of gold ETFs, which achieved this milestone over 20 years.

    Analysts Praise the Success of Spot Bitcoin ETFs
    James Butterfill (CoinShares)ETF inflows have significantly exceeded our modest forecast of $14 billion.
    Roxanna Islam (VettaFi)The success far exceeded expectations. This momentum is likely to continue in 2025.
    Matt Hougan (Bitwise)Bitcoin ETFs have become the best-performing ETFs in history. I believe inflows will increase in 2025.
    Matt Mena (21Shares)With net flows exceeding our $15 billion forecast, the success is remarkable.

    Future of Bitcoin and ETFs
    Analysts predict the market will continue to grow in 2025 as more professional investors gain access to ETFs. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have boosted investor confidence not only within the crypto community but also in the traditional financial world.

A New Era for Crypto Under Trump Administration

Changes in SEC and Crypto Policies

The crypto industry is preparing for a new era under the Trump administration’s revamped leadership team. Paul Atkins, known for his crypto-friendly stance, is expected to replace SEC Chairman Gary Gensler. Atkins is anticipated to adopt more innovative and market-friendly policies in crypto regulations. Additionally, Silicon Valley’s prominent figure, David Sacks, will assume the title of “Crypto Czar” in a new advisory role. Under Sacks’ leadership, a crypto advisory council will be established to develop strategic policies for digital assets. These measures under the Trump administration could pave the way for more favorable and supportive policies toward cryptocurrencies. Both Atkins’ SEC chairmanship and Sacks’ advisory position could enable broader adoption of digital assets and blockchain technology.

 

Morgan Stanley’s E-Trade Unit Eyes Crypto Trading

Morgan Stanley’s E-Trade division is awaiting regulatory approval to enter crypto markets. Upon approval, E-Trade aims to provide a reliable platform for crypto trading to both retail and institutional investors, positioning itself as a key player in the sector. This move reflects Morgan Stanley’s growing interest in the crypto industry and could accelerate the integration of traditional finance with the crypto world. E-Trade’s extensive user base could contribute to greater adoption of cryptocurrencies, further expanding the market.

 

Bitcoin in 2025

According to Fidelity Digital Assets, 2025 could be a turning point for Bitcoin globally. Macro-economic challenges like rising inflation, currency devaluation, and growing fiscal deficits may push nation-states and central banks to adopt Bitcoin as a strategic investment tool. Bitcoin could emerge as a reliable store of value not just for individual investors but also for governments. The report highlights Bitcoin’s potential to act as a stabilizing asset against these challenges, particularly with policy initiatives in the US such as a “Bitcoin Act.” Such steps could encourage other nations to develop similar policies, driving broader adoption of Bitcoin in the global financial system. Governments are expected to discreetly accumulate Bitcoin to avoid price volatility, allowing them to increase reserves without major market disruptions. By 2025, Bitcoin could become a strategic asset in central bank reserve portfolios, akin to gold, marking the start of a new era for cryptocurrencies in the global economy.

 

Czech Central Bank Considers Bitcoin for Reserve Diversification

The Czech National Bank (ČNB) Governor Aleš Michl has announced that Bitcoin acquisition is under consideration as part of a reserve diversification strategy. Speaking to CNN Prima News, Michl proposed the idea but emphasized that there are currently no plans to acquire cryptocurrencies.

BTC

BTC:
Let’s take a look at the ITB analysis for Bitcoin. The percentage of those profiting from Bitcoin at the market price is 91%, while 4% are at a loss, and 5% are neutral. Whale trading volumes are around $146.59 billion. ITB analysis shows that Bitcoin has “4 neutral,” “0 bullish,” and “1 bearish” market expectations. The absence of a bullish signal indicates that there are no strong upward movement expectations for Bitcoin at the moment. The 4 neutral signals suggest that Bitcoin is likely to trade sideways in the short term, meaning neither buyers nor sellers dominate the market, and the price is expected to move within a specific range. The “1 bearish” signal shows a potential short-term selling pressure or a decline in the market.

ITB Analyses

“The investment information and comments contained in this research report do not constitute investment advice.”

Araştırma Uzmanı at EgeMoney

Uzmanlık alanlarım arasında temel ve teknik analiz, portföy yönetimi, risk analizi ve pazar araştırması bulunmaktadır. Hızla değişen piyasa koşullarına uyum sağlama ve rapor üretme benim önceliklerim arasındadır. Finansal geleceğinizi şekillendirmek ve karar alma süreçlerinize değer katmak amacıyla araştırmalarımı EgeMoney platformu üzerinden sizlere sunuyorum.