Expectations in the Markets After the Halving
| Date | Time | Currency | Case | Expectation | Previous Month’s Announced Data |
| 22.04.2024 | XRP | Last day for Ripple Labs, the issuer of XRP, to file an appeal in the lawsuit filed by the SEC | |||
| 23.04.2024 | TRY | Official Holiday – National Sovereignty and Children’s Day | |||
| 25.04.2024 | 14:00 | TRY | Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) Interest Rate Decision | %50 | |
| 25.04.2024 | 15:30 | USD | US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) | %2,5 | %3,4 |
| 26.04.2024 | 15:30 | USD | Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (YoY) (Mar) | %2,6 | %2,8 |
Before the Bitcoin halving, transaction fees had significantly increased. However, after the halving, a decrease in these fees was observed. Currently, the median transaction fees in Bitcoin are at $9.47, while the high priority transaction fees are at $10.4. These transaction fees had previously exceeded $170. The decreasing transaction fees indicate that the situation has stabilized in Bitcoin after the halving.
Bitcoin dominance had surpassed the 57% mark in recent weeks, breaking new records. After the halving, it is trading around the 55% levels.
- In response to a decrease in geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran in global markets, Bitcoin’s price surpassed $66,000 this morning. Last week’s geopolitical tensions had led to downward trends, especially in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. However, with no negative developments over the weekend and the completion of the Halving event, the crypto market has experienced upward momentum again.
- FTX is currently maintaining our agenda on Solana, a significant portion of its asset, by planning to sell locked Solanas through an auction method rather than at a predetermined price. Following the previous $1.9 billion Solana sale, it was stated that the next sale would be in the form of an auction. Locked Solana coins by FTX are in high demand in the crypto sector. Many companies see buying SOL at a discounted price as an opportunity. The exact details of the sale have not yet been disclosed. This development is quite important for Solana followers and could affect price movements.
- Renowned economist Peter Schiff, known as the “Gold Bug,” drew attention again with his statement on social media after the Bitcoin halving, warning investors in a sarcastic tone. “Congratulations to Bitcoiners on the halving. Are you having a party tonight? I wasn’t invited to any. I think halving is a suitable name since soon Bitcoin investors will experience a halving of their net worth.” We can also consider this implication as a prediction.
BTC: If we evaluate Bitcoin this week according to the Elliott Wave Theory;
According to the results generated by the Elliott Wave Theory, we are facing a medium-term negative outlook turning neutral towards the long term in terms of futures. After the halving, we see that the market is currently indecisive about finding direction. We know that R/R ratios between 1 and 8 yield more reliable results. Therefore, in the current situation, we can expect clarity in direction and, during this process, we can avoid long-term trades and focus on daily trades.
If we evaluate it with ITB analysis;
We observe that 91% of Bitcoin holders are in profit. Total exchange outflows were over $10 billion last week, but this week we see it has decreased to $7 billion. According to ITB analyses, there are 3 ‘Bear’, 1 ‘Bull’, and 3 ‘Neutral’ expectations. Looking at past periods after Halving, we generally saw a bear market dominance in the markets. Therefore, using ‘Take Profit’ and ‘Stop Loss’ orders in your trades can be beneficial for transaction health.
“The investment information and comments contained in this research report are not investment advice.”
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