What awaits us in a week full of interest rate decisions?
| Date | Time | Currency | Event | Expectation | Previous Month’s Announced Data |
| 22.01.2024 | BTC | Hearing between Binance and SEC | |||
| 25.01.2024 | 14:00 | TRY | One-Week Repo Interest Rate | 45,00% | 42,50% |
| 25.01.2024 | 16:15 | EUR | Euro Zone – Interest Rate Decision | 4,50% | 4,50% |
| 25.01.2024 | 16:45 | EUR | ECB (European Central Bank) Press Release | ||
| 25.01.2024 | ETH | SEC decision on Grayscale’s spot Ethereum ETF application |
- The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey announced in the January Market Participants Survey that the year-end CPI expectations for the current year are 42.04%. Similarly, the year-end exchange rate (USDTRY) expectation during the same survey period is 40.00 TL.
- On Thursday, we will be witnessing the first interest rate decision of the year in Turkey. There is a market perception that a 250 basis point interest rate hike may come first, followed by subsequent interest rate cuts.
Crisis Unfolding in the Week Expected for Central Bank’s Interest Rate Decision
A Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) employee had claimed, through a complaint to the Presidential Communication Center (CİMER), that they were dismissed by CBRT President Hafize Gaye Erkan’s father, Erol Erkan. The employee also alleged that Erkan had slapped a waiter. It is a fact that Hafize Gaye Erkan has been in the United States for weeks and has not yet returned.
There are speculations about the possibility of the CBRT President being removed from office, and this is currently a serious topic of discussion. Several columnists are mentioning different names that could potentially replace Hafize Gaye Erkan. With the CBRT interest rate decision expected on Thursday, such crises can impact the Turkish stock market. Caution is advised when trading on BIST, as this week may be quite volatile.
USDT Becomes the 11th Cryptocurrency with the Most BTC Holdings
Tether has reached a total BTC asset value of $2.8 billion by purchasing $380 million worth of BTC (8,888 BTC).
According to a ranking by Dune Analytics, addresses associated with the company collectively own 66,465 Bitcoins, making it the 11th largest holder of the cryptocurrency.
- On May 11, 2022, Terraform Labs, the organization behind TerraUSD (UST), experienced a virtual collapse, causing significant losses for its investors. The company officially filed for bankruptcy on Sunday in the state of Delaware, United States. Following this official bankruptcy, there were observed declines in the cryptocurrency markets.
- MetaMask has launched a new staking service that allows Ethereum users to create their own nodes by providing a specific percentage of returns. This service was introduced through the MetaMask Portfolio on January 18, enabling stakers who invest 32 Ether to manage their own nodes.
BTC:
With Terraform Labs officially filing for bankruptcy, we are witnessing accelerated declines in Bitcoin at the beginning of the week.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is at a level of 41,019. This week, we will analyze Bitcoin through the Elliot Wave analysis available on our EgeMoney website.
In the long-term time frame section, we observe the maturity intervals from long to short terms. Going from the long term to the short term, Target 1 and Target 2 are target levels that we can choose according to our patience and risk perception. For detailed information about Elliot Wave, you can read our blog post “Elliot Wave Theory Guide”. When looking at the chart, it presents a positive outlook for the long term while indicating a more negative outlook for the short term. In the medium term, a neutral expectation prevails. In terms of target levels, for the short term, 38,696 USDT and 36,665 USDT are significant support levels to be followed in case of declines. In the medium term, in the scenario of decline, the first target is 37,852 USDT, and the second target is 35,145 USDT. In the scenario of an increase, we will follow the levels of 41,648 USDT and 56,000 USDT. Looking at a longer-term perspective, we will need to examine the Primary time frame, where the nearest target 1 is 45,609 USDT, and the other target is 66,080 USDT. Of course, when we talk about the long term, it is possible to consider this period as 1 year or more.
ETH:
Although we started with losses in Ethereum prices, we can see that the recovery has begun.
Looking at what the Elliot waves tell us; in the short term, a downtrend may be present, and we should pay attention to this in daily transactions, keeping an eye on levels of 2,342 USDT and 2,252 USDT. In the medium term, although there is a more neutral atmosphere, the evaluation for both scenarios will be as follows. In case of possible pullbacks, we will be monitoring levels of 2,367 USDT and then 2,253 USDT. In potential upward scenarios, we will be tracking levels of 2,932 USDT and 3,684 USDT.
“The investment information, opinions, and recommendations contained in this research report are not within the scope of investment advisory.”
