What Awaits Us in the Market This Week?
| Date | Time | Currency | Event | Expectation | Previous Month’s Data |
| 31.01.2024 | 16:15 | USD | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Jan) | 135K | 164K |
| 31.01.2024 | 22:00 | USD | Fed Interest Rate Decision | %5,50 | %5,50 |
| 01.02.2024 | 13:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Data (Annual) (Jan) | %2,8 | %2,9 |
| 02.02.2024 | 16:30 | USD | Non-Farm Employment (Jan) | 173K | 216K |
| 02.02.2024 | 16:30 | USD | Unemployment Rate (Jan) | %3,8 | %3,7 |
| 02.02.2024 | 16:30 | USD | Average Hourly Earnings (Monthly) (Jan) | %0,3 | %0,4 |
-We started the week with a hot development. Unfortunately, there was an attack on U.S. forces in Jordan. So far, 3 soldiers have lost their lives, and 34 soldiers are known to be wounded.
-The SEC was supposed to announce last Thursday its decision regarding BlackRock’s application for a spot Ethereum ETF, but chose to delay this decision until March.
-BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), among the newly launched spot Bitcoin products, became the first to reach a managed asset (AUM) value of 2 billion dollars last Friday. This valuation does not include Grayscale’s GBTC product, a closed-end fund with about 30 billion dollars in AUM, which later converted to a spot ETF. On Thursday, thanks to approximately 170 million dollars in contributions from investors, the fund purchased about 4,300 BTC, increasing its token holdings to 49,952 and thus pushing the fund’s AUM value over 2 billion dollars.
-XRP is planning to establish a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) for its own digital currency. However, it is indicated that the approval of futures ETFs is a prerequisite for achieving this goal.
-Investors known as ‘Bitcoin whales’, who hold significant amounts of Bitcoin, have noticeably increased their stocks. According to a report by data analytics firm IntoTheBlock, these key players have added about 3 billion dollars worth, equivalent to 76,000 BTC, to their Bitcoin portfolios since the beginning of the year. This situation highlights the confidence and investment tactics of those holding the largest share in the crypto market.
-On the Central Bank of Turkey’s side, we met the interest rate decision within expectations at 250 BP.
-This week, all markets are focused on the Fed’s upcoming interest rate decision.
On the last day of the month, we will confront the interest rate decision and follow the statements of Fed Chairman Powell. As of writing, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is at 103 levels, and we will watch together this week to see which direction it will take after the interest rate decision.
Looking back at how Bitcoin has closed the month of January in past years:
Last year it closed with a positive 39.83%, and based on the average of past years, it is expected to close positively this year as well. However, we are witnessing some suppression due to ETF news.
BTC:
If we were to analyze Bitcoin this week with Elliot Wave theory data, which can only be found on the EgeMoney website;
The time frame shows us the terms.
The range between Cycle – Minor goes from long to short.
Elliot Wave predicts a long-term and main trend upward in the long run.
In the short term, it indicates a negative.
As for target levels, long-term targets are 45,609 USDT and 66,080 USDT.
XRP:
For Ripple, which is expected to move positively with plans for a spot ETF application for its own digital currency, this week’s Elliot Wave analysis sets neutral direction for the short term, revealing targets of 0.5290 USDT and 0.5415 USDT from the 3rd Wave. For the medium term, since there is a negative expectation, it is important to set profit and loss levels in transactions.
“The investment information, opinions, and recommendations contained in this research report are not within the scope of investment advisory.”
