Is ETF Approval Finally Coming?

What’s on the Economic Calendar this week?

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Expectation	Previous Month’s Data
10.01.2024		BTC	SEC, spot Bitcoin ETF’leri ile ilgili nihai kararı vermesi bekleniyor
11.01.2024	16:30	USD	Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Annual) (Dec)	3,2%	3,1%
11.01.2024	16:30	USD	Unemployment Insurance Claims		202K
11.01.2024	22:00	BTC	SEC, Closed Session Meeting
12.01.2024	16:30	USD	Producer Price Index (PPI) (Monthly) (Dec)	0,2%	0,0%

On the last trading day of last week, US Non-Farm Employment data was announced. In December, we saw an increase of 216,000, exceeding the expectation of 177,000.

At the same time, other data released in the US included the US Unemployment Rate, which was announced at 3.7% for December, in line with November, against a 3.8% expectation. The change in average hourly earnings for US workers was 4.1% annually in December. The expectation for hourly earnings was 3.9%.

The Dollar Index is trading at 102.42 levels at the time of writing. The CPI data to be announced in the US on Thursday could signal the Fed’s future course of action, and thus volatility in prices could increase.

The SEC is expected to make a decision on the US-based Bitcoin spot ETF by January 10. This decision could have significant effects on cryptocurrencies and the regulatory environment. Additionally, the SEC announced that a closed meeting will be held the day after the last application date, January 11, coinciding with 22:00 Turkey time. This timing is quite interesting.

The decisions to be made at the meeting are important. It looks like we’re in for an eventful week, especially with potential sharp fluctuations on the Bitcoin side.

Bitcoin Move from El Salvador’s Neighbor

In Honduras’ Roatan city, within a special economic zone called Prospera, Bitcoin was recognized as a legal tender as of January 5.

This move means that Bitcoin can now be used to measure the market value of goods and services in the region. Honduras Prospera was established in 2020 as an economic development center to attract investment and entrepreneurship opportunities. This special zone also has administrative, financial, and budgetary autonomy.

USDC Trading Volumes Overtake USDT

The trading volume of the Solana-based stablecoin USDC has surpassed that of USDT on the Tron blockchain. Data shows that the USDC transfer volume was over $60 billion on January 1, while USDT remained at the $34 billion level.

Polygon Overtakes Solana in NFT Volume in the Last 24 Hours

In the transaction volumes of the last 24 hours, Polygon’s NFT volume has overtaken Solana’s, attracting all attention. Polygon moved up to 3rd place in the NFT sales volume ranking, leaving Solana behind.

Blockchains by NFT Sales Volume:

Source: https://www.cryptoslam.io/

BTC:

BlackRock expects the application for the spot Bitcoin ETF to be clearly approved on Wednesday, January 10. The BTC market could be volatile until Wednesday due to these expectations, and the movement may increase further if it is approved. Technically speaking, it is trading at 43,670 levels, and we are observing a squeeze both in the channel and in the Bollinger Bands. This generally indicates that sharp movements will follow. The resistance level of 44,300 USDT will be under our observation; breaking this could lead to an attempt at 45,500 USDT. If ETF approval news comes, this resistance might also be surpassed. 48,000 USDT and even possibly 50,000 USDT could come into our agenda. On the contrary, in case of a delay or rejection of ETFs, we could see a rapid drop towards the 40,900 USDT support. Depending on the news, it could decline to 38,000 USDT due to FOMO. Even baseless rumors can affect the market at this point. Therefore, it will be beneficial to closely follow the ETF approval news this week.

Based on the ITB analysis we detailed last week;

While 89% of the open positions for Bitcoin were profitable at market price last week, this week we see that the percentage has dropped to 85%.

Regarding the signal last week; there were 2 bearish, 2 neutral, 1 bullish;

This week, we observe 2 bearish, 4 neutral, 1 bullish. The increase in neutral signals indicates that we need to proceed cautiously in our transactions.

For today, we see the ITB forecast accuracy rate at 76.92%.

This gives us a significant clue for the upward prediction made for the direction.

MATIC:

Polygon’s NFT trading volume in the last 24 hours has risen to 10.5 million dollars, achieving a transaction volume more than double that of Solana, pushing Solana to the fourth spot and settling in third in volume. I think it should be added to our watchlist this week.

Technically, we see it gaining strong support from 0.7520 USDT and approaching the 0.8500 resistance. If this level is surpassed, 0.9520 will come into play, and it doesn’t seem difficult to overcome. In this case, we could see 1.0125, and with the influence of news flows, even 1.1000 USDT levels. In the event of a possible retracement, we might witness a drop to 0.7330 USDT levels. Although news flows are currently pushing towards a positive zone, it’s still prudent to be cautious.

If we take a Quick Look at the ITB analysis available on the EgeMoney website;

Büyük aktörlere göre konsantrasyon oranının %84 ile epey yüksek olduğunu görmekteyiz.Bu veri bize balinaların toplam üzerindeki payını bize vermekte ve Matic’de balinaların fazla olduğunu göstermektedir.Bu kimi zaman olumlu olabilirken kimi zaman da olumsuz sonuçlar çağrıştırabilir. Yani hareketlerin daha sert geleceğini bize bildirir.