WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE MARKETS DURING FED WEEK?

– Expected Interest Rate Cut from the FED

At the FED meeting to be held this week, most economists and investors have a clear expectation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points. By the end of the year, a total interest rate cut of 100 basis points is anticipated. The basis of this expectation lies in inflation approaching the FED’s 2% target and signs of a slowdown in economic activity. Market participants emphasize that the expectation of a rate cut has strengthened based on these data. It is believed that this step by the FED will be taken to support economic growth and ease the financial pressures created by high interest rates. Particularly, the decrease in borrowing costs could provide relief to both consumers and businesses. However, the speed and scope of the rate cut will become clear with the FED’s decisions in the remaining part of the year. These developments are expected to have wide-ranging effects on the markets and lead to significant movements, especially in stock and bond markets.

– Trump and Harris Statements
Last week, we followed the live discussion between U.S. Presidential candidates Trump and Harris. The two major candidates’ approaches to the crypto industry drew attention. Trump showed a closer stance to the sector by promising to end the “illegal and anti-American pressures” on the U.S. crypto market. Additionally, he gained support from the industry by selecting pro-crypto J.D. Vance as his vice president and stated that he would defend Bitcoin mining. On the other hand, Kamala Harris has started to step into the crypto sector. While her team is known to be seeking more information on this issue, Harris’ approach to crypto is not yet clear. Some actors in the industry criticize the Biden administration’s digital asset regulations, and how Harris will handle this remains a point of curiosity.

– Second Assassination Attempt on Trump Prevented
Former U.S. President Donald Trump was subjected to a second assassination attempt at a golf course in Florida. Suspect Ryan Wesley Routh was detected by security forces as he tried to approach Trump secretly. Routh, who was found to be 300-500 meters away from Trump, was caught after attempting to escape. This incident marks the second assassination attempt on Trump in two months.

– Single License Era in EU’s Stablecoin Market
The European Banking Authority plans to finalize the technical standards for stablecoins by the end of 2024 under the EU’s MiCA regulation. These standards will cover areas such as the authorization of stablecoin issuers, stress tests, and transaction volume estimation, ensuring strict oversight across the EU. Once the regulations take effect, issuers will be able to operate with a single license across the EU, providing more transparency and security in the market.

– USDC and Soneium Blockchain Partnership
One of the leading players in the stablecoin world, Circle, is teaming up with Block Solutions Labs, a subsidiary of Sony, to pave the way for a significant transformation in crypto payment systems. This collaboration will facilitate the broader adoption of Circle’s stablecoin USDC on the Soneium Blockchain network developed by Sony. This move, aimed at creating a secure, user-friendly, and advanced ecosystem for Web3 creators, marks the beginning of a new era in the digital asset world. The integration of USDC into the Soneium Blockchain infrastructure will highlight critical factors like security and speed in digital payments, offering new opportunities for creative economies. The strategic partnership between Circle and Block Solutions Labs not only aims to increase the use of cryptocurrencies but also to contribute to the full realization of Web3’s potential. This development is expected to have a wide impact both in the technology and finance world, paving the way for broader global adoption of blockchain-based payment solutions and supporting the growth of creative ecosystems.

BTC:

If we evaluate Bitcoin with the ITB analyses on the EgeMoney website; We saw prices above 60,000 USDT for Bitcoin over the weekend, but it couldn’t hold that level and is currently trading around 58,900 USDT.

• Investors making a profit at the current price: 81%, while those making a loss: 13%.
• For transactions above 100,000 USD, the amount is 87.05 billion USD. At the same time, the ITB analyses, based on the current outlook, indicate 0 “bearish,” 4 “neutral,” and 1 “bullish” signals. It’s not common to see such a neutral outlook in ITB analyses. We might be entering a week where the markets will move within a settling channel. The interest rate decision from the FED will be the most critical data of this week. It would be wise to follow it closely.
  “The investment information and comments contained in this research report do not constitute investment advice.”