If we briefly touch on the definitions of the data to be announced today;
–Non-Farm Employment to changes in the number of people working in the last month, except for the agricultural sector (Industry, Public, Service, etc.),
– Unemployment Rate in the total labor force of people who could not find a job despite looking for a job in the past month in the US economy,
-Changes in the hourly wage paid to workers working outside the agricultural sector are called Average Hourly Earnings. The data is always announced at the same times, but due to summer and winter applications, we see that the change in the clock goes forward and backward by 1 hour.
| SUMMER TIME | WINTER TIME |
| 15:30 | 16:30 |
In the US, non-farm employment increased by 12 thousand in October, well below expectations. The Boeing strike and the impact of Hurricanes Helene and Milton in the southeastern states of the country had a negative impact on employment data. Now, since a normal process will be followed, we will follow how far or close the relevant figure is from the general outlook.
Among the estimates made for the Non-Farm Employment data, the high estimate is 275K, the lowest estimate is 155K, and the market expectation is 215K median.
Since a result to be followed below 155K will be below the estimate bottom point, the probability of a Fed interest rate cut at the December meeting will increase.
The idea that the optimistic outlook in employment continues above the 215K expectation may reduce the rate in interest rate estimates.
We can see that the employment data that may come above the upper limit of the estimate, 275K, also highlights the expectation that there will be no need for an interest rate cut in December.
– The expectation is that Non-Farm Employment will announce an increase of 202 thousand people.
–Unemployment is expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2%
–The monthly increase in average hourly wages is expected to fall from 0.4% to 0.3%.
In addition, private sector employment in the US was announced below market expectations with 146 thousand people.
With this data to be announced at 16:30, I would like to remind investors who have transactions in cryptocurrencies to proceed cautiously in their transactions in order not to experience losses due to volatility, and I wish everyone a profitable day. 🎊
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