Economic Updates of the Week:
| Date | Time | Currency | Event | Expectation | Previously Announced Data |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 10, Tuesday | Live debate between U.S. Presidential candidates Trump and Harris | ||||
| September 10, Tuesday | 10:00 | TRY | Unemployment Rate (Monthly) | 9.2% | |
| September 11, Wednesday | 15:30 | USD | U.S. Annual Inflation Rate (CPI) announcement | 2.6% | 2.9% |
| September 12, Thursday | 15:15 | EUR | Interest Rate Decision | 3.65% | 4.25% |
| September 12, Thursday | 15:45 | EUR | European Central Bank (ECB) Press Conference | ||
| September 13, Friday | Binance relisting the former MATIC project under its new name POL |
– Non-Farm Payroll Data Falls Below Expectations
The non-farm payroll data released last Friday in the U.S. fell below expectations, which is seen as an important development, especially regarding the FED’s interest rate policy. While there was an increase of 142,000 in employment in August, it fell short of economists’ expectations of 164,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%. The decline in the unemployment rate and the limited increase in wages may lead the Fed to believe that inflationary pressures are easing. With this data, the central bank may adopt a more flexible interest rate policy. When combined with the forecast that employment growth may slow further, this market expectation is seen as a strong signal that the Fed could cut rates to support growth.
The international credit rating agency Fitch Ratings upgraded Turkey’s credit rating by one notch, from “B+” to “BB-“. This development marks the second time Turkey’s credit rating has been raised in 2024. Additionally, the rating outlook was revised from “positive” to “stable”.
The “BB-” rating is still below investment grade, meaning that a country or company at this level has the capacity to repay its debts, but economic vulnerabilities and risks are present. However, a “BB-“ credit rating indicates a lower risk profile compared to “B+”, meaning the likelihood of debt repayment is considered higher. In March 2024, Fitch had raised Turkey’s credit rating from “B” to “B+” and changed the outlook to “positive”. This latest upgrade indicates that Turkey’s economic performance is being positively evaluated by international rating agencies. Moody’s and S&P are also among the agencies that raised Turkey’s credit rating this year. In July, Moody’s increased Turkey’s rating by two notches, while S&P made an upgrade in May. These upgrades signal that Turkey’s economic fundamentals have strengthened and that confidence in international markets has increased.
– Garanti BBVA Expands Its Crypto Services with AVAX
Garanti BBVA’s subsidiary, Garanti BBVA Digital Assets, announced on April 25 that it would soon support Avalanche (AVAX) and the Avalanche C-Chain network. According to a report from Demirören News Agency (DHA) today, Garanti BBVA Crypto mobile platform has expanded its service portfolio to provide users with secure and easy trading transactions. In response to demand from Turkey, Garanti BBVA has started supporting AVAX and the Avalanche C-Chain network, in addition to BTC, ETH, and USDC. Furthermore, the company stated that it would continue to grow its platform by carefully listing new assets according to user needs and enhancing the infrastructure in the future.
– Bitcoin ETFs Drop Below $50 Billion
Initially, expectations for ETFs were quite high. Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, expected to make access to crypto markets easier and attract institutional investors, appeared to have the potential to trigger a significant transformation in the industry. However, the weak performance of the market has made it difficult to meet these expectations. Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have dropped to their lowest monthly levels due to poor market performance. A total of $170 million was withdrawn from Bitcoin ETFs, bringing the total value of ETFs below $50 billion. This is considered a negative development not only for Bitcoin ETFs but also for the overall market outlook. Grayscale and Fidelity funds, in particular, saw significant outflows. Contrary to expectations, these losses suggest that the market recovery may take time. A similar situation is observed with Ethereum ETFs, where $6 million was withdrawn, and the total value dropped to $6.09 billion.
– New Investments by USDT
Tether announced in April that it was divided into four different sections. These sections were explained as Tether Finance, which manages USDT stablecoin; Tether Mining, responsible for Bitcoin mining investments; Tether Data, which oversees technology investments; and Tether Edu, which handles educational projects. However, it is still unclear which section manages the Adecoagro investment. In August, after announcing a record profit of $5.2 billion in the first half of 2024, Tether revealed plans to double its workforce by 2025. CEO Paolo Ardoino stated that the company would particularly strengthen its development, investment, and compliance teams. Tether has also invested in notable companies such as Taiwan-based crypto exchange XREX and Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin mining company Bitdeer.
– XRP Transfers
Whale Alert reported that large transfers totaling 358 million XRP were made in the last 24 hours. Among these, two major transfers stood out: 95 million XRP and 102.8 million XRP. In the first transaction, 95 million XRP were sent to Binance, with a value of approximately $49.6 million. In the second transaction, 102.8 million XRP were transferred to an unknown wallet. These two transactions indicate that a total of around 200 million XRP were moved, with half sent to Binance. Such large transactions can often lead to price fluctuations in the market. Transfers to Binance are typically thought to result in token sales, which could lead to price drops for XRP.
If we evaluate Ripple according to the Elliott Wave Theory:
The analysis results suggest an indecisive start in the short term, with targets of 0.4935 USDT during declines and 0.9376 USDT during rises. Over a longer period, targets of 0.3289 USDT in declines and, if broken, 0.2016 USDT are expected.
- “The investment information and comments contained in this research report do not constitute investment advice.”
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